Abstract
This study has developed a novel measurement-based computational method that accurately determines the vertical and lateral wheel–rail contact forces transmitted from railway vehicles to the rails. A major contribution—and the first in the literature—is the analytical distribution of the total lateral wheelset force into its outer-wheel and inner-wheel components, thereby enabling precise individual evaluation of derailment risk on each wheel in curved tracks. Analytical equations derived from Newton’s second law were first formulated to express both vertical forces and total axle lateral force directly from bogie/axle-box accelerations and suspension reactions. To eliminate the deviations caused by conventional simplifying assumptions (neglect of creep effects, wheel diameter variation, and constant contact geometry), surrogate functions and distribution equations sensitive to curve radius, vehicle speed, and cant deficiency were introduced for the first time and seamlessly integrated into the equations. Validation was performed using the Istanbul Tramway multibody model in SIMPACK 2024x.2, with the equations implemented in MATLAB/Simulink R2024b. Excellent agreement with SIMPACK reference results was achieved on straight tracks and curves, after regression-based calibration of the surrogate functions. Although the method requires an initial regression calibration within a simulation environment, it relies exclusively on measurable parameters, ensuring low cost, full compatibility with existing vehicle sensors, and genuine suitability for real-time monitoring. Consequently, it supports predictive maintenance and proactive safety management while overcoming the practical limitations of instrumented wheelsets and offering a robust, fleet-scalable alternative for the railway industry.
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