An Application of Path Analysis in Gaugeing Stimulated Travel Demand

Abstract

This article aims to gauge stimulated travel demand in the case of İstanbul by investigating the inter-relationship between two variables called amount of trips and travel time. Such an empirical investigation is expected to construct a baseline for determining the optimum transportation project with regard to the concern of minimizing the amount of travel time spent by communities. At this juncture, an amount of applied econometric models for measuring stimulated travel demand were exhibited in detail. According to the results of path analysis as an advanced version of simultaneous equations system, approximately 27 % decrease in travel time causes 71 % additional increase in amount of trips in a day. This result once more reveals that unending supply of transportation infrastructure in urban areas causes a kind of vicious circle in the long run, which necessitates further travel demand management strategies in all over the world.