Bankacılıkta Şubeleşme Eğilimini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Faktörlerin Belirlenmesi Türk Mevduat Bankaları Üzerine Bir Araştırma (Determination of Affecting Macroeconomic Factors of Branching Trend in Banking: A Research on Turkish Deposit Banks)

Abstract

Turkish Abstract: Turk Bankacilik Sektoru 2002 sonrasinda buyume surecini surdurmektedir. Bu kapsamda toplam aktiflerden kredilere, mevduatlardan toplam ozkaynaklara kadar bircok finansal gostergede buyume gorulmustur. Sektorde gorulen buyumeye paralel olarak bankalarin sube aglarinda buyume gorulmustur. Turk Bankacilik Sektorunun toplam sube sayisi 2008 yilsonunda 9.304 iken, 2015 Eylul doneminde ise 12.330 ile en yuksek duzeye ulasmistir. Ancak bu donemden sonra sektorun toplam sube sayisinda azalma gorulmustur. Sektorun toplam sube sayisi 2016 yilsonunda 11.747, 2017 Haziran ayi sonunda ise 11.705 olarak gerceklesmistir. Soz konusu rakamlar, Turk Bankacilik Sektorunde acilan sube sayisinin kapanan sube sayisindan daha az oldugunu ve dolayisi ile bazi bankalarin sube kapatma egilimine girdiklerini gostermektedir. Bu calisma Turk Bankacilik Sektorunde subelesme egiliminin degerlendirilmesine yonelik hazirlanmistir. Calismada bankalarin sube acilis ve kapanislarini etkileyen faktorlerin belirlenmesi amaclanmistir. 15 mevduat bankasinin subelesme egilimi sektor payi, rekabet, ekonomik buyume, enflasyon (Tuketici Fiyat Endeksi), issizlik orani, gelir esitsizligi, ticari mevduat hacmi, kisi basi Gayri Safi Yurtici Hasila (GSYIH), hanehalki geliri ve etkinlik skoru degiskenleri ve 2010-2016 araligindaki ucer aylik veriler kullanilarak analiz edilmistir. Calisma sonucunda etkinlik, sektor payi, issizlik faktorlerinin bankalarin subelesmesini pozitif etkiledigi belirlenmistir. Diger taraftan rekabet bankalarin subelesmesini negatif etkilemektedir. Bankalarin ekonomi acisindan onemi dikkate alindiginda, sube acilislarinin ve kapanislarinin Bankacilik Duzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu’nun (BDDK) iznine baglanmasi onerilmektedir. Boylece bankalarin subelesmelerinin ekonomik gostergeler uzerindeki etkileri siki bir sekilde duzenlenebilecektir ve muhtemel olumsuz etkiler onlenebilecektir. Turkiye’de bankalarin subelesme egilimi ile ilgili calisma bulunmadigindan, yapilan calisma bu yonuyle oncu bir calisma olma ozelligi tasimaktadir. English Abstract: Turkish Banking Sector has maintained growth process of which it has been from 2002. In this context, growth has been seen in some financial indicators from total assets, credits, deposits to total shareholders’ equity. Parallel to growth in the sector, also growth has been seen in banks’ branch size. Turkish Banking Sector’s total branch size was 9.304 as of 2008 year-end was 12.330 as of September 2015 which is the highest level. However, a decrease has been shown after this time in Turkish Banking Sector’s total branch size. Turkish Banking Sector’s total branch size has been 11.705 as of June 2017 and it was 11.747 as of 2016 year-end. The figures shows that closed branches is much more than opened branches in Turkish Banking Sector and hence some banks have been in trending of branch closing. This paper was prepared for making an evaluation about branching trend in Turkish Banking Sector. In the study, it was aimed at determining factors which affect branch opening and closing factors of banks. 15 deposit banks branching trend were analyzed by using sector share, competition, economic growth, inflation (Consumer Prices Index), unemployment rate, income inequality, commercial deposit volume, Gross National Product (GNP) per capita, household income and efficiency score variables and quarterly data for the period of 2010-2016. As a conclusion, it was determined that efficiency, sector share, economic growth, GNP per capita, inflation (CPI) and unemployment affect banks’ branching trend positively. On the other hand, competition affect banks’ branching trend negatively. Taken into consideration importance of banks for economy, it was recommended that branch openings and closings should be subject to permission of Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA). Thus, effects on economic indicators of branching in banking could be strictly regulated and bad effects could possibly be prevented. This paper is pioneer study due to the fact that there is no study about branching trend of banks in Turkey.