The Analysis of Actual and Expected Inflation in Turkey

Abstract

The main objective of the Central Bank is to maintain price stability. Policy objectives set out in this direction and policy instruments used for this purpose can be varied. Inflation expectations are considered to be one of the most important policy instruments used today. Especially in the implementation of the inflation targeting regime, emerges a phenomenon to be studied in as the monitoring of inflation expectations, management, ensuring compliance with set targets. In case of inflation targeting regime implementation; the management, monitoring and meeting targets emerges as a phenomenon to be studied. Since 2002 Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has been monitoring and publishing its expectations for inflation. Those inflation expectations are followed and published regularly. The publication and monitoring has been through the implementation expectations surveys of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. This paper examines the consistency of the inflation rates with the inflation expectations since 2003. Comparative analysis of the consistency has been analysed by the expectations data for the “current month”, “one month ahead